AI has exploded into law and life in the shark pool just got 10x worse.
Chat GPT has a brain the size of a planet and its growing exponentially.
Einstein had an estimated IQ of 160, there’s no way to verify this, but we do know he was a very clever man and one of the smartest in the world.
Chat GPT is conservatively estimated to have an IQ of 155 according to Mo Gawdat (former Chief Business Officer of Google), but no one can be certain of this. It could be higher, but it’s unlikely to be lower.
An IQ of over 130 puts you in the top 2% of the population. So Chat GPT is already smarter than 98% of the population.
In 2023, the smartest person on the planet, has an IQ of 225-230. The current record holder is Terence Tao, an American-Chinese mathematician.
With this level of intelligence, AI can already out think most of us. Lawyers are no exception.
Chat GPT has already passed the American bar exams. Twice!
Once, as an infant AI – Chat GPT 3 scoring 213/400 and secondly as an upgraded Chat GPT 4 scoring 298 out of 400
It went from the 10th percentile to the 90th percentile in a very short period of time. This is a massive improvement.
A passing score in the New York Bar exam is 266. The passing is different in other states.
“GPT-4 scored in the 90th percentile with a score of 298 out of 400, according to OpenAI.”
It is also passing many other complex exams with flying colours.
Top Lawyers beaten by infant AI
Back in 2018, top ranking, experienced lawyers from America’s top law firms such as, Goldman Sachs and Cisco, and global law firms including Alston & Bird and K&L Gates, went into battle against AI.
Twenty, of America’s best in class attorneys, took up a challenge to review 5 complex NDA contracts and test their ability against that of an AI.
The AI won.
Here are some important comparisons
AI has improved since then, and will continue to improve exponentially.
Read more about the lawyers experience.
Lawyers that I have spoken with, often say AI will not be able to replace them because as humans they can help clients to strategise and choose the best course of action to help their clients win.
Well, unfortunately, I have to burst this bubble and say that AI can and does frequently strategise.
Computer programmes have been thinking and learning ever since Deep Blue, IBM’s supercomputer, was released into the world.
In 1996 Deep Blue lost to World Champion Garry Kasparov. One year later Kasparov was defeated on 12 May 1997.
AI, continues to dominate chess. Humans cannot compete against it. It can analyse an infinite number of moves in seconds and work out the best one. Humans just don’t have that ability.
By 2017, game playing AI had improved exponentially, and a new super AI, emerged.
In 24 hours, Alpha Zero had taught itself how to play chess and Shogi (Japanese chess). It was programmed the games instructions and it was then able to work out how to play it. This is an important point to understand. AI learns by itself.
It became so good that it was very quickly able to beat the best chess programme in the world.
Compare this with the Deep blue AI from 1996. It took a year to learn and upgrade so that it could beat Kasaparov. What used to take a year, now takes 24 hours.
When, Alfa Zero won the match, Joanna Bryson, Prof of Ethics &Technology; Artificial & Natural Intelligence, at the University of Bath, tweeted that, “it had learned a strategy”.
It performed faster, and better than humans had predicted.
Humans, are no match for AI when it comes to chess or go. It will always win.
But, here’s the part where it gets scary. AI is now being trained to lose and play more human-like moves instead of the winning move. It’s part of the Maia project, which wants to make playing chess against an AI less scary.
Unfortunately, there is no regulation of AI development, which is creating a lot of concern and why so many scientists and tech gurus including ex google employees like Geoffrey Hinton, known as the Godfather of AI, are now speaking out against the development of AI and asking for a halt in its progress.
We know so little about AI, but here’s some scary things, we do know.
We have taught AI how to strategise, and place its opponent under an inescapable threat of capture (chess).
How to expertly lie, cheat and read people, to obtain money (poker).
How to strategise, acquire territory, kill to protect its territory, or itself (Go).
The technicalities of battle, and combat (Dota 2).
Stealth, and evasion tactics (Ms Pac Man).
The rapid changes in AI, can feel overwhelming. However, it would be stupid to try and, ignore AI.
It’s advancing so rapidly, and there is no doubt that it will have a huge impact on the legal profession.
So, what can you do to make sure you still have a job?
The first thing is, to learn more about AI and start to use it more often.
Next, follow the advice of Mo Gawdat and brush up on your human skills, the ones that AI can’t replace. This means improving your communication skills. Learn how to connect with people, how to talk with them and how to listen actively.
Future lawyers, are already being trained to code. Existing lawyers need to be able to use tech and communicate clearly the results.
Lawyers will exist but there will be fewer of them and they will function in a new way.
Contact Caryn, if you are ready to step up, future proof your career and upgrade your communication skills.
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